2016 bellwether counties

2016 bellwether counties

Until this year. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Until this year. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. So, where are the bellwether counties? Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. They simply vote on merit. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. It's the wrong question. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Their hopes are real. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. 10. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Really stop reading. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. It almost became religious.". Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Hillary Clinton (578) For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. i.e. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Go on, look them up! We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Arapahoe County. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. University of Denver, 2. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Joe Biden (631) When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. What are your thoughts on this article? We believe this was a mistake. This county voted with the popular vote each time. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties.

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